Will the Middle East Conflict Make Flights More Expensive? Here's What We Know

The Strait of Hormuz Is the Reason Everyone Is Watching Oil

To understand why a conflict in the Middle East can send airline stocks tumbling within hours, it helps to know about one narrow stretch of water. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important shipping corridors in the world. About 15 percent of global oil supply moves through it, including crude oil, jet fuel, and other refined products headed to markets in Asia and Europe.

When that corridor is threatened, the ripple effects show up almost immediately in global energy markets. During the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war, fears that as much as 3 million barrels per day of Russian exports could disappear pushed oil prices from around $80 a barrel to more than $125. Supplies ultimately held up better than expected, but the price spike showed how quickly markets react when a major energy route is at risk. In the current conflict, the stakes are even higher, with roughly 15 million barrels per day of Gulf exports moving through the region.

Right now, the key issue is insurance. War-risk insurers have pulled coverage for some ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. That detail may sound technical, but it has a simple consequence. Ships without insurance cannot operate. Oil tankers have not necessarily been stopped by force, but without coverage they cannot sail, which creates almost the same effect as a blockade.

Jet Fuel Just Hit a Four-Year High

Here's the part that connects directly to your ticket price. Jet fuel prices at the U.S. Gulf Coast have surged to $4.12 per gallon, the highest level in nearly four years. For airlines, the timing could hardly be worse.

Fuel is one of the biggest expenses airlines face. In most years it accounts for 20 to 30 percent of total operating costs, which means even short spikes can hit the industry hard. Airlines already operate on very thin margins. The International Air Transport

Association estimates the global airline industry will post a net profit margin of only 3.9 percent in 2026. When fuel prices jump, those margins disappear quickly.

To put the scale in perspective:

• A one-cent increase in jet fuel prices adds about $50 million to American Airlines' annual costs

• Delta faces roughly $40 million in additional costs for every one-cent increase

• A 10 percent rise in fuel prices could add close to $1 billion to Delta's fuel bill in 2026 alone


These numbers are not just accounting details. When airlines face cost increases at this scale, they respond in predictable ways. They cut routes, reduce flight frequency, limit seat availability, and eventually raise fares to make up the difference.

The Detour Problem: Flights Are Getting Longer and More Expensive

Fuel costs are only part of the problem. Airlines are also being forced to reroute flights to avoid Middle Eastern airspace that is now considered a higher-risk zone. Those detours can add 300 to 800 nautical miles to a journey and extend flight times by 45 minutes to two hours.


That extra time in the air gets expensive quickly.

Aviation analyst Ernest Arvai told The National that if detours stretch to two or three hours, operating costs can rise by $6,000 to $7,500 for every additional flight hour. On a long-haul route, that can translate into around $60,000 in extra operating costs for a single flight.


Fuel is only part of that equation. Longer routes create several additional costs for airlines, including:

• Additional crew members or crew changes when flights exceed legal duty-hour limits

• Hotel stays and repositioning costs for flight crews

• More complex scheduling and aircraft rotation


Every extra hour in the air creates a cascade of costs that passengers rarely see directly. Eventually, though, those costs tend to show up in ticket prices.

Flights between India and Europe offer a clear example. Many westbound routes normally pass over Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. With those corridors disrupted, some flights have been canceled while others are taking much longer detours. In some cases, the added flying time can reach four hours.

One aviation expert estimates the impact at about $96 million per week for Indian and international airlines operating routes to and from India.

Will This Actually Push Up Ticket Prices for Regular Travelers?

Airlines cannot simply raise fares by 20 percent overnight without losing passengers to competitors. Instead, they usually start by adjusting other parts of the travel experience. That means travelers may begin to notice changes before ticket prices themselves move much.

In the short term, the impact often appears in ways like:

• Fewer reward seats available for miles or points

• Stricter baggage rules or new fees

• Less seat availability on popular routes


In other words, flights do not always become more expensive immediately. They can simply become harder to book at good prices.

If the disruption continues, though, the cost pressures add up quickly. Some economists estimate that the combined impact of higher fuel prices, rerouting, and interrupted passenger and cargo services could exceed $1 billion for the global aviation industry. Once costs reach that scale, airlines usually pass them on to passengers.


Some carriers are better protected than others. Airlines that locked in fuel prices before the conflict began are shielded from much of the current spike. Ryanair, for example, hedged fuel at about $67 per barrel for the coming year.


Airlines with less fuel hedging coverage are far more exposed. Those tend to be the traditional long-haul carriers, which also happen to operate many of the routes most affected by the current airspace disruptions.

What This Means if You're Planning to Travel

If you already have flights booked through the Middle East this spring or summer, keep a close eye on updates from your airline. Most major carriers have introduced flexible rebooking policies for affected routes. It is usually better to check directly with your airline rather than waiting for an email notification.

If you are still planning travel, there are a few things worth keeping in mind.

Some travelers are already experimenting with alternative transit hubs as Gulf routes face disruption. Cities such as Muscat, Nairobi, and Tbilisi are beginning to appear more often in routing options. Muscat in particular has emerged as one of the more stable hubs in the region, and Oman Air has started adding capacity on several routes.

Travel insurance is also worth reviewing carefully right now. Policies can vary widely in what they consider a covered disruption. When checking your policy, look specifically for coverage that includes:

• Airspace closures

• Geopolitical disruptions

• Extended delays caused by rerouting


If you are booking new travel for the summer, choosing a policy that explicitly includes those protections may be worth the extra cost.

Finally, if your travel dates are flexible, booking sooner rather than later may be the safer move. If fuel prices remain elevated and airlines continue rerouting flights, the fares available right now could look relatively good by the time summer arrives.

No one knows how long the current disruption will last. The situation is evolving quickly, and energy markets are reacting to every new development. What is already clear, though, is that events unfolding in the Gulf are closely tied to the cost of flying around the world.

Airspace over the Middle East is quieter right now than it has been in years. The bigger question is how long that lasts, and what the ripple effects will mean for travelers in the months ahead.

Frequently Asked Questions: Will the Middle East Conflict Make Flights More Expensive?

Will the Middle East conflict make flights more expensive?

It already is for some routes, and broader fare increases are likely if the conflict continues. Jet fuel prices at the U.S. Gulf Coast have surged to $4.12 per gallon as of early March 2026, a four-year high. Airlines are currently absorbing costs through reduced reward availability and route cuts, but sustained disruption typically leads to fare increases across the board.

Why does the Middle East conflict affect oil prices?

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, carries roughly 15 to 20 percent of the world's daily oil supply. When that corridor is threatened or effectively closed — through military conflict or insurance withdrawal — global oil prices spike almost immediately, because the market reacts to the potential loss of supply even before any actual shortage occurs.

How much of an airline's costs come from fuel?

Fuel accounts for between 20 and 30 percent of an airline's total operating costs, making it the second-largest expense after labor. Even a short-term spike in jet fuel prices can erase an airline's profit margin entirely, given that the average net margin for global airlines in 2026 was estimated at just 3.9 percent.

Why are flights being rerouted because of the Middle East conflict?

Airlines avoid flying over active conflict zones for safety reasons, and war risk insurance for flights operating near Iran and Iraq has been withdrawn or repriced dramatically. Rerouting adds between 300 and 800 nautical miles to affected journeys, increases fuel burn, extends crew duty hours, and raises operating costs by as much as $60,000 on a single long-haul sector.

Which airlines are most affected by rising fuel costs right now?

Unhedged U.S. carriers are among the most exposed. American Airlines, United, and Delta have all seen significant stock declines this week. Airlines with strong fuel hedging in place, like Ryanair, which locked in at $67 per barrel, are largely shielded from the current spike. Asian and European carriers with heavy Middle East route exposure are also significantly affected.

What should I do if I have flights booked through the Middle East?

Contact your airline directly to understand your rebooking options. Most major carriers have issued flexible change policies for affected routes. Review your travel insurance to confirm it covers airspace closures specifically. If you're transiting through Dubai, Doha, or Abu Dhabi, check your airline's latest operating status before traveling to the airport.