Punxsutawney Phil Said Winter Wasn’t Leaving — And, Unfortunately, He Was Right

Snow First, Then the Real Villain: The Cold

Snow totals will vary widely, but many major cities will see something — just enough to be annoying.

• New York City could pick up 1–2 inches, mostly overnight, neatly frosting the grimy piles that have been living curbside for weeks.

• Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Cleveland could see up to 6 inches or more, especially in lake-effect zones.

• Massachusetts and parts of New England are looking at 2–4 inches broadly, with 3–6 inches and isolated higher totals near the coast and inland bands.

• DC, Maryland, and Northern Virginia may only see brief snow showers, but timing during the evening commute could make things dicey fast.

The snow is not the headline. The cold following it is. Behind the storm comes a sharp Arctic blast that will send temperatures tumbling and wind chills into the danger zone.

Wind Chills That Feel Personal

This weekend’s cold is the kind that feels aggressive.

• New York City could see wind chills between -15°F and -20°F late Saturday into Sunday.

• New England may experience wind chills dropping to -30°F or lower in some areas.

• DC and the surrounding region could see wind chills near 15 below zero, paired with wind gusts up to 60 mph.

High wind warnings are posted in several regions, raising the risk of downed trees, power outages, and hazardous travel, especially for high-profile vehicles.

In some places, temperatures will actually fall during the day on Saturday, which is meteorologist code for “this will feel worse than you expect.”

Why This Keeps Happening

If you are wondering why winter seems unusually committed this year, forecasters point to a familiar pattern. A wavy jet stream has kept funneling Arctic air into the eastern U.S. while much of the West stays unusually warm and dry. Add in fast-moving systems known as Alberta clippers—small but punchy storms that race out of Canada bringing quick bursts of snow, strong winds, and fresh blasts of cold—and the result is repeated cold shots that never give the snow a chance to melt between storms.

In short: the atmosphere is stuck on repeat.

Even Niagara Falls Is Icing Over

If this cold still feels abstract, consider this: Niagara Falls has slipped into its “Frozen Falls” phase. Sustained sub-zero temperatures and reduced winter water flow have allowed ice to build along the cliffs, with frozen mist coating the surrounding landscape and sections of the river locking up.

The falls do not fully freeze, but when Niagara starts looking like a giant ice sculpture, it is a clear signal that the Arctic air mass dominating the eastern U.S. is no joke. This is the same cold pressing into the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes this weekend, turning ordinary winter weather into something far more punishing

Is There Any Good News

Yes. Sort of.

Forecasters say this particular cold snap should ease early next week, with temperatures moderating closer to seasonal norms by midweek. That said, models already hint at another system potentially lining up for next weekend, because of course they do.

Winter may not last forever, but it is absolutely not taking feedback right now.

This weekend is a reminder that you do not need a historic blizzard for winter to be miserable. A little snow, a lot of wind, and dangerous cold are more than enough.

Punxsutawney Phil said winter was sticking around. The forecast says he knew exactly what he was talking about.

FAQ: Winter Isn't Leaving

Is this a major blizzard?


No. This system is not a blockbuster snowstorm everywhere. Snow totals are generally modest, but the combination of snow squalls, strong winds, and extreme cold makes impacts more serious than the numbers suggest.

What is causing the dangerously cold temperatures?


A strong Arctic air mass is pouring south behind a fast-moving winter system, driven by a wavy jet stream pattern that keeps funneling cold air into the eastern U.S.

Why do wind chills matter more than actual temperatures?


Wind strips away your body’s natural heat, making it feel much colder than the air temperature alone. That is why wind chills can drop well below zero even when thermometers read higher.

Which regions are most affected by this cold snap?


The Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, and New England are seeing the harshest impacts, but dangerous wind chills are also reaching parts of the Midwest and Appalachians.

Is Niagara Falls actually frozen?


Not completely. Niagara Falls rarely freezes solid, but extreme cold and reduced winter water flow can create the “Frozen Falls” effect, where ice builds along the cliffs and frozen mist coats the surrounding area.

How long will this cold last?


Forecasters expect temperatures to moderate early next week, returning closer to seasonal norms by midweek. However, additional winter systems are already being monitored.

Should people change travel plans this weekend?


Yes, especially in areas under high wind warnings or extreme cold advisories. Even light snowfall can become hazardous when paired with blowing snow and reduced visibility.

Was Punxsutawney Phil actually right?


Painfully so. Winter is not done yet, and this pattern suggests it still has plenty of enthusiasm left.