Will Airfare Prices Come Down? Travel Experts Say You Should Book Your 2026 Flights Now

Why Airfare Prices Are Climbing Right Now

Two things are happening at once, and neither of them is good for travelers trying to save money on flights.

The biggest driver is fuel. Rising oil prices tied to the U.S. conflict in Iran have pushed jet fuel sharply higher in just a matter of weeks. Fuel typically accounts for a significant portion of airline operating costs, and when it spikes this quickly, airlines have little choice but to pass those costs on to passengers.

At the same time, demand has not slowed down. Airlines are still seeing strong bookings, especially for summer travel, which means there is little incentive to keep fares low. In some cases, the surge in bookings may actually reflect travelers rushing to lock in prices before they climb further. That combination, rising costs and steady demand, is exactly what pushes prices up.

A recent Deutsche Bank report shows just how quickly this is happening. Airfare prices for domestic flights booked three weeks out have already spiked between 10% and 50%. That is not a small fluctuation. That is the difference between a reasonable fare and one that makes you reconsider the trip altogether.

Book Now, Even for Thanksgiving and Christmas

Travel experts are not just talking about spring or summer. They are telling travelers to book as much of their 2026 travel as possible right now, including the holidays.

Clint Henderson, managing editor at The Points Guy, is advising travelers to lock in flights early while prices are still relatively manageable. That might feel premature in March, but the logic is straightforward. The longer you wait, the more expensive those fares are likely to get.

Holiday travel is especially vulnerable to this kind of pressure. Thanksgiving and Christmas flights are already among the first to fill up under normal conditions. In a rising-price environment, those increases tend to happen faster and hit harder.

Booking Early Doesn’t Mean You’re Stuck

One of the biggest reasons travelers hesitate to book early is the fear of overpaying if prices drop later. In most cases, that risk is lower than it used to be. Many U.S. airlines now allow you to cancel and receive a credit if fares drop, or to rebook at a lower price and keep the difference. If you see the same flight at a cheaper rate after booking, you can often call the airline or simply rebook yourself.

The key exception is basic economy. These tickets usually do not allow changes, which removes your flexibility entirely.

Why You Should Avoid Basic Economy Right Now

Basic economy tickets are always restrictive, but they are a particularly bad bet in a volatile pricing environment. You cannot change your ticket, your options are limited if your plans shift, and you lose the ability to take advantage of price drops. In a moment when fares are moving quickly, that flexibility is exactly what you want.

Henderson put it plainly: basic economy is bad for consumers across the board. If you are booking now, which you should be, it is worth paying slightly more for a fare that gives you options later.

This is one of those rare moments where the usual advice to “wait for a better deal” simply does not apply. Airfare is trending upward, not downward, and the forces behind that shift are not short-lived. Fuel costs are elevated, global instability is adding pressure, and demand remains strong enough to support higher prices. In this kind of environment, the travelers who come out ahead are the ones who move early, lock in flexible fares, and keep an eye on prices after booking.

If you already know where you want to go in 2026, there is little to gain from waiting. Booking now, with a fare that gives you flexibility, allows you to secure today’s price while still leaving room to adjust if something better comes along. And more often than not, the fare you lock in today is likely to look like a bargain by summer.

Frequently Asked Questions: Gelato Boat Bar Cefalù Sicily

Should I book my 2026 flights now?


Yes. Travel experts are recommending booking early because airfare prices are already rising and may continue to increase.

How much have airfare prices gone up?


According to a Deutsche Bank report, domestic fares booked three weeks out have already increased between 10% and 50%.

Why are flight prices going up?


The main drivers are rising jet fuel costs and strong travel demand.

Can I get a refund if prices drop after I book?


Most airlines offer credits or allow rebooking at a lower fare, as long as you avoid basic economy.

Is it too early to book holiday flights?


No. Experts recommend booking Thanksgiving and Christmas travel now, especially in a rising price environment.