Is A Trip To Europe in Your Summer Plans? Head of Energy Agency Says Europe Has "Maybe 6 Weeks of Jet Fuel Left"

What the Fuel Shortage Warning Actually Means for Travelers

The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, put it pretty plainly this week. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, a key route for global oil and gas, Europe is dealing with what he called the largest energy crunch it’s faced in a long time. Normally, about 75 percent of Europe’s jet fuel imports come from the Middle East, and that supply has been disrupted for more than six weeks.

The situation isn’t complicated, but it’s not great either. If supplies don’t start moving again, some European airports could begin running low on fuel by mid to late June. The IEA has already warned that without replacing at least half of what’s been lost, shortages at certain airports and eventual flight cancellations become a real possibility.

The U.S. has increased jet fuel exports to help cover the gap, but even in a best-case scenario, it would only make up a little over half of what Europe is missing. It helps, but it doesn’t fully solve the problem.

Which Routes and Airports Are Most at Risk

No one’s putting out a list of which airports would be hit first, but the IEA’s warning about “select airports” gives you a sense of where the pressure could show up. Smaller regional hubs and secondary cities are likely more exposed than major gateways like London Heathrow, Paris CDG, or Frankfurt, which have stronger supplier relationships and larger fuel reserves.

That said, the bigger airports aren’t completely insulated. If you’re connecting within Europe, flying into a major hub and then continuing on to somewhere like Barcelona or Dubrovnik, it’s that second leg where things get less predictable. Short-haul routes tend to run on tighter margins, with smaller aircraft and less buffer built into fuel supply.

If this stretches into August, which is one of the scenarios the IEA has outlined, it lines up with peak summer travel. That’s when schedules are full, demand is highest, and there’s less room to absorb disruption.

What Airlines Are Already Doing

Several European airlines are already starting to feel the pressure. EasyJet said this week it took on an extra £25 million (about $31 million USD) in fuel costs in March alone, and that’s with more than three-quarters of its fuel locked in at fixed prices before the conflict escalated. For airlines that didn’t hedge as much, the impact is likely a lot sharper.

Fuel prices tell the rest of the story. European jet fuel hit a record $1,838 per tonne at the start of April, up from about $831 (roughly $900 USD) before the war began. At that level, airlines don’t have many options. They either raise fares, reduce flights, or do some combination of both, which is what we’re starting to see.

Even if supply stabilizes, higher prices this summer are already likely. The cost increases are working their way through the system, and travelers will feel that one way or another.

What the European Commission Is (and Isn't) Saying

The European Commission said this week there’s “no evidence of fuel shortages” in the EU right now, which is technically accurate, but the key part is “right now.” Officials also acknowledged that supply issues could show up in the near future and said coordination groups on oil and gas are now meeting weekly.

A broader announcement on energy measures from the Commission president is expected next week. At the same time, the trade body representing European airports has already raised concerns, warning that shortages could start to emerge if the situation doesn’t improve quickly. That timeline is either already here or getting close.

The bottom line is that governments are watching it closely and starting to prepare for different scenarios, but there isn’t a clear solution in place yet.

What You Should Do Before Your Trip

This isn’t a reason to cancel your Europe trip, at least not right now. But it is a good reason to be a bit more proactive. Take a look at your airline’s policies and see if they’re offering fee-free changes or cancellations given the current situation. A lot of carriers have already issued travel waivers, which can give you more flexibility than what your original ticket suggests.

If you don’t already have travel insurance, it’s worth looking into, especially policies that cover trip interruptions tied to airline operations. The IEA’s warning is out there now, which means insurers may start tightening what they cover if things escalate. Waiting could limit your options.

For the next few weeks, it’s also worth keeping a closer eye on updates from your airline. If disruptions do start to happen, they’ll likely come with short notice, and during peak travel season, rebooking options can fill up quickly.

Europe is still very much worth going to this summer, and things could shift quickly if the situation around the Strait of Hormuz improves. But it’s still worth planning with a bit of flexibility in mind. Know your options, protect your booking, and keep an eye on updates as your trip gets closer.

Frequently Asked Questions: Europe Jet Fuel Shortage and Summer Travel

Could my flights to Europe actually be canceled this summer?

It's possible, though not certain. The IEA warned that flight cancellations within Europe could happen soon if fuel supplies aren't replenished. Transatlantic flights to and from the US are currently less at risk than intra-European routes.

When could shortages actually hit?

The IEA estimates Europe has around six weeks of jet fuel remaining as of mid-April. If supplies aren't replaced, physical shortages at some airports could emerge as early as June, with August as a fallback timeline if partial replacement shipments come through.

Which European airports are most at risk?

The IEA didn't name specific airports, but smaller regional hubs are generally more vulnerable than major gateways. Connecting flights within Europe carry more risk than long-haul transatlantic legs.

Are flight prices going up because of this?

Yes. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled since before the war began. Airlines are already raising fares and surcharges to offset costs, and that's unlikely to reverse in the short term.

Should I cancel my Europe trip?

Not necessarily. The situation is serious but still evolving. A diplomatic resolution could reopen the Strait of Hormuz quickly. It makes sense to check your flexibility options and consider travel insurance, but canceling outright isn't warranted yet.

Is the US doing anything to help?

US jet fuel exports to Europe have accelerated significantly. However, even at full capacity, those shipments would replace only about half of what Europe normally imports from the Middle East.

What's the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter?

It's a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply flows. Iran has effectively closed it to most shipping in response to US and Israeli military strikes, cutting off a major source of jet fuel and crude oil for Europe and Asia.

Will airlines warn me in advance if my flight is canceled?

Airlines are required to notify passengers of cancellations, but during a widespread shortage, rebooking options could be extremely limited during peak summer season. Check your airline's current policies and sign up for alerts.