Canadian Travel to the U.S. Is Down 35% and Showing No Signs of Stopping

Staggering Statistics

The scale of the shift is hard to overstate. According to Statistics Canada data released in April 2026, Canadians driving to the U.S. are down 35 percent compared to March 2024, before trade tensions began building in early 2025. Since road trips are the most common way Canadians cross the border, that drop carries real weight.

Air travel is telling the same story. There was a 14 percent year-over-year decline in Canadian air travelers to the U.S. in March 2026 alone, and it’s not a one-off. The pattern has been steady, with double-digit declines month after month since early 2025.

Industry analysts have described it as a sustained break in travel patterns rather than a short-term fluctuation. Even long-time observers of the sector say they haven’t seen a shift of this scale play out this quickly.

What's Driving It

It’s not just one factor driving the shift. In 2024, more than 20 million Canadians traveled to the U.S., making them the largest group of international visitors by a wide margin. But that dynamic has started to change. Since the start of the second Trump administration, a mix of new tariffs, political tension, stricter immigration enforcement, and added travel fees has made cross-border trips feel less straightforward than they used to.

Recent data suggests the impact is already showing up. Nearly a quarter of Canadian travelers say they’ve canceled a planned trip to the U.S., pointing to the political climate, concerns about border experiences, and a growing reluctance to spend money somewhere that feels less welcoming than before. For many, it’s not just about logistics. It’s about how the trip feels before they even leave home.

Where Are They Going Instead?

More or less everywhere else. Canadian overseas travel was up 5 percent year over year in March 2026, and for the third straight month, more Canadians flew to international destinations than drove south to the U.S., flipping a pattern that had held for decades.

The shift is showing up in where people are going. London is picking up trips that might have once gone to Orlando. Mexico continues to draw in Canadian snowbirds. Families who would have defaulted to Florida theme parks are now looking at places like Disneyland Paris or even Tokyo instead. Travel advisors are seeing it in real time, with a noticeable increase in requests for those destinations.

The bigger picture is that Canadians aren’t traveling less. They’re just choosing different places. Domestic tourism spending is up, and overall tourism growth has been outpacing the broader Canadian economy, which suggests the demand is still there, it’s just moving in a different direction.

The Cost to the U.S.

The numbers behind this are hard to ignore. In 2024, Canadian visitors brought about $20.5 billion into the U.S. economy. Even a modest drop would have been noticeable, but that’s not what happened. Visits fell by roughly 22 percent in 2025, which translates to an estimated $4.5 billion in lost spending, and the slowdown has continued into 2026.

That shift stands out even more in a global context. While international tourism grew by around 4 percent worldwide in 2025, the U.S. moved in the opposite direction, with a decline in inbound travel. Industry groups have flagged a broader downturn, and even cities preparing for major events like the FIFA World Cup aren’t seeing the level of international demand they had expected.

Will It Last?

That’s the part no one really has a clear answer to yet. Some Canadians say they’re not sure when, or if, they’ll go back, while others see this more as a pause, waiting to see how things settle before returning to the kinds of trips they used to take without much thought.

In the meantime, the movement is going the other way. U.S. travel to Canada was up 6.1 percent in February 2026, marking the first increase after a full year of declines. Americans are still heading north, but whether Canadians return in the same numbers is still an open question.

What’s clear for now is that this isn’t a short-term dip or a seasonal shift. It’s a broader change in behavior. Canadians are still traveling, still spending, and still planning trips, just not to the U.S. at the same scale. Whether that eventually changes will depend less on pricing or promotions and more on the overall relationship between the two countries. Until then, the trend is likely to hold.

Frequently Asked Questions: Canadian Tourism Boycott of the United States

Why are Canadians avoiding travel to the United States?

The shift started in early 2025, following a mix of new tariffs on Canadian goods, repeated “51st state” rhetoric, and a series of high-profile immigration enforcement incidents. For many Canadians, it’s less about one specific policy and more about the overall tone. Concerns about border scrutiny, a feeling of being less welcome, and a conscious decision about where to spend travel dollars are all playing a role.

How much has Canadian travel to the U.S. declined?

The drop has been significant. Road trips to the U.S. are down 35% compared to March 2024, and air travel from Canada fell 14% year over year in March 2026 alone. In 2025, total Canadian arrivals to the U.S. declined by roughly 21%, or about 4.2 million fewer visitors.

How much has the slowdown cost the U.S. economy?

Canadian visitors spent about $20.5 billion in the U.S. in 2024. A 22% decline in 2025 translates to an estimated $4.5 billion in lost spending, more than double what industry groups projected from even a modest downturn.

Where are Canadians traveling instead?

They’re not staying home, they’re just choosing different destinations. International travel from Canada is up 5% year over year, with strong demand for Europe, Mexico, and domestic trips within Canada. Cities like London and destinations like Disneyland Paris and Mexican beach resorts are seeing the shift firsthand.

Are Americans still visiting Canada?

Yes, and in growing numbers. U.S. visits to Canada were up 6.1% in February 2026, marking the first increase after a full year of declines. Travel between the two countries hasn’t stopped, it’s just become more one-sided.

Is Canada’s tourism sector benefiting from this?

It is. Domestic tourism spending rose 2.7% in 2025, and tourism GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.8% in the fourth quarter, outpacing the broader Canadian economy. Canada is effectively capturing more of its own travel demand.

Could the 2026 FIFA World Cup reverse the trend?

It could help, but expectations are tempered. The tournament spans the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, but early signals suggest U.S. host cities aren’t seeing the international booking surge many anticipated. Broader sentiment may limit how much of a boost it provides.

Is this kind of shift unusual?

Very. Travel between Canada and the U.S. has long been one of the most interconnected cross-border flows in the world. The speed and scale of this reversal stand out, even by industry standards.